The head of the Syrian negotiating commission , Nasr Hariri, expressed his hope that the Turkish guarantee would prevent a battle between the “opposition” and the Syrian government in the province of Idlib, but he pledged that it would not be easy .[ Hariri said in an interview with Agence France Press in Riyadh]
Idlib, which borders Turkey in recent years, has been the destination for tens of thousands gunmen and civilians evacuated from several areas were under the control of the opposition forces, most notably Aleppo and the eastern Ghouta of Damascus.
Many in both sides either armed terrorist groups or supporters of the Syrian state wonder what Turkey can do when the Syrian army begins the battle of Idlib’s liberation.
Turkey has deployed 12 observation points deep in the province, some of which are close to the lines of separation that separate the Turkish government, which has warned against the repercussions of the start of Idlib’s liberation battle and its reflection on the Istana Agreement regarding the contact lines between Terrorist sites and the Syrian Army.
First, the Astana agreements stipulate that the movement of checkpoints should not exceed 50 meters from the locations where they are positioned. It is clear that the Turkish authorities began to fence these sites with a wall aimed at protecting these sites and preparing for the possibility of battle.
As to the answer to the question of what Turkey can do when the battle for the liberation of Idlib begins?
It is likely that it will not do anything different than what it did when the Syrian army began to liberate the eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo and the southeastern part of Idlib.
The Syrian army managed within two weeks to liberate one third of Idlib. The liberated area included important military sites, like Abu Al-Zahor air base and cities like
Abu-Alzahor & Sinjar.
What Turkey did at the time was to issue statements of Denial and disapproval, also kept its borders open for the transfer of ammunition, equipment and militants to the front positions in order to face the advance of the Syrian army forces, turkey did nothing more that .!!!!
As for the collapse of the Astana track, Turkey is responsible for this critical situation if it happens because Turkey has not fulfilled its obligations under the agreements to reduce the escalation. In that agreement turkey are obligated and responsible for the separation between the forces of terrorist organizations, and other armed groups . This has not happened at all, even now those terrorist groups are exposing the coordination between them and the Turkish especially now in preparation for confronting the Syrian army’s moves towards Idlib, ,
The strange situation on ground that as per astana agreement turkey are obligated to fight against the groups defined as terrorist groups such as the Nasra Front, the truth is the turkish are working in the opposite direction, that they cooperate and coordinate with AL-Nosra front instead of fighting it.
I personally think that If Turkey asks Russia to stop Idlib’s liberation , Moscow’s would answer will be the same as response to US allegations that Russia and the Syrian army violated the agreement to reduce the escalation in the south. That is to say that Washington did not commit to separating terrorist organizations from other organizations, the same answer will be received by Turkey from Russia.
Hostile Environment & Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Analysis , HECPO Level 4 /PMC/CPO/FPOS-I
Position : Director – Hostile Environment Security Consulting LLC
Hostile Environment Security Consulting LLC